Вот например данные расчетов для вашей Воли...
Расчет...
Try (N) - Drop rate on this try - Drop rate on all N tries
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1 - 24,00000000% - 24,00000000%
2 - 18,24000000% - 42,24000000%
3 - 13,86240000% - 56,10240000%
4 - 10,53542400% - 66,63782400%
5 - 8,00692224% - 74,64474624%
6 - 6,08526090% - 80,73000714%
7 - 4,62479829% - 85,35480543%
8 - 3,51484670% - 88,86965213%
9 - 2,67128349% - 91,54093562%
10 - 2,03017545% - 93,57111107%
11 - 1,54293334% - 95,11404441%
12 - 1,17262934% - 96,28667375%
13 - 0,89119830% - 97,17787205%
14 - 0,67731071% - 97,85518276%
15 - 0,51475614% - 98,36993890%
16 - 0,39121466% - 98,76115356%
17 - 0,29732315% - 99,05847671%
18 - 0,22596559% - 99,28444230%
19 - 0,17173385% - 99,45617615%
20 - 0,13051772% - 99,58669387%
21 - 0,09919347% - 99,68588734%
22 - 0,07538704% - 99,76127438%
23 - 0,05729415% - 99,81856853%
24 - 0,04354355% - 99,86211208%
25 - 0,03309310% - 99,89520518%
26 - 0,02515076% - 99,92035594%
27 - 0,01911457% - 99,93947051%
28 - 0,01452708% - 99,95399759%
29 - 0,01104058% - 99,96503817%
30 - 0,00839084% - 99,97342901%
The item most likely will drop on this try:
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Balance method - 2,52570743
Advanced balance method - 3,05990492
Bernulli method - 3,64382559
Expected value method - 4,16666667
Симуляция... 100 попыток "выбить"...
Try (N) - Drop rate on this try - Drop rate on all N tries
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1 - 24,00000000% - 24,00000000%
2 - 13,00000000% - 37,00000000%
3 - 12,00000000% - 49,00000000%
4 - 10,00000000% - 59,00000000%
5 - 8,00000000% - 67,00000000%
6 - 8,00000000% - 75,00000000%
7 - 2,00000000% - 77,00000000%
8 - 5,00000000% - 82,00000000%
9 - 7,00000000% - 89,00000000%
10 - 2,00000000% - 91,00000000%
11 - 1,00000000% - 92,00000000%
12 - 1,00000000% - 93,00000000%
13 - 2,00000000% - 95,00000000%
14 - 2,00000000% - 97,00000000%
15 - 0,00000000% - 97,00000000%
16 - 2,00000000% - 99,00000000%
17 - 0,00000000% - 99,00000000%
18 - 1,00000000% - 100,00000000%
19 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
20 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
21 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
22 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
23 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
24 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
25 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
26 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
27 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
28 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
29 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
30 - 0,00000000% - 100,00000000%
The item most likely will drop on this try:
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Balance method - 4
Advanced balance method - 4
Bernulli method - 4
Expected value method - 4,78000000
Симуляция... 100000 попыток "выбить"...
Try (N) - Drop rate on this try - Drop rate on all N tries
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1 - 23,80000000% - 23,80000000%
2 - 18,36900000% - 42,16900000%
3 - 13,82400000% - 55,99300000%
4 - 10,53800000% - 66,53100000%
5 - 7,99600000% - 74,52700000%
6 - 6,01200000% - 80,53900000%
7 - 4,82100000% - 85,36000000%
8 - 3,57100000% - 88,93100000%
9 - 2,67200000% - 91,60300000%
10 - 2,01100000% - 93,61400000%
11 - 1,54800000% - 95,16200000%
12 - 1,18500000% - 96,34700000%
13 - 0,86300000% - 97,21000000%
14 - 0,64900000% - 97,85900000%
15 - 0,49600000% - 98,35500000%
16 - 0,41800000% - 98,77300000%
17 - 0,29000000% - 99,06300000%
18 - 0,21200000% - 99,27500000%
19 - 0,17700000% - 99,45200000%
20 - 0,13900000% - 99,59100000%
21 - 0,10300000% - 99,69400000%
22 - 0,07400000% - 99,76800000%
23 - 0,05700000% - 99,82500000%
24 - 0,03700000% - 99,86200000%
25 - 0,03300000% - 99,89500000%
26 - 0,02100000% - 99,91600000%
27 - 0,02000000% - 99,93600000%
28 - 0,01500000% - 99,95100000%
29 - 0,01100000% - 99,96200000%
30 - 0,00800000% - 99,97000000%
The item most likely will drop on this try:
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Balance method - 3
Advanced balance method - 4
Bernulli method - 4
Expected value method - 4,16137000
Как видите, вещь должна выбиваться в среднем с 3-4 попытки... Вероятность выбить за 20 попыток - 99%... Теоретически лишь два рейда из 1000 не смогут ее выбить за пол года... Практически же дела обстоят еще хуже... Симуляция, которая более реалистична, т.к. симулирует реальную, а не чисто теоретическую ситуацию вообще показывает, что ее можно выбить с почти 100% вероятностью за 17 попыток...